System Dynamics Modeling of Robusta Coffee Quality Standard in Indonesia for Global Market Expansion
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25186/.v21i.2435Abstract
Indonesia has significant potential for robusta coffee bean production. However, inconsistent export quality remains a major constraint in penetrating the global market. Addressing quality variability is crucial for enhancing the competitiveness and international positioning of Indonesian Robusta coffee. This study aims to develop a quality standardization model for Robusta coffee beans using a system dynamics approach to support quality improvement and ultimately expand the export market for high-quality coffee. This study uniquely links quality governance, farm practices, and export performance through a system dynamics framework for sustainable Robusta coffee development. The model was developed based on primary data derived from indepth interviews and Group Model Building (GMB) workshops involving key stakeholders, complemented by secondary data sourced from relevant research institutions. The system was modeled and simulated using Powersim software. The simulation applied Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and Good Handling Practices (GHP) through enhanced production inputs, technological adoption, and farmer-level management, which can significantly improve bean quality. The simulation resulted in reduced defect rates, improved bean quality, and increased grade 1–2 export shares. Strengthened quality governance ensures standard consistency, supports farmer welfare, and expands export markets, serving as a reference for sustainable quality policy development in Indonesia’s robusta coffee sector.
Key words: Export; good agricultural practices (GAP); quality standardization.
References
Amanda, S., & Rosiana, N. (2023). Analysis of Indonesian coffee competitiveness in facing global coffee trade. Agribusiness Forum, 13(1):1-11.
Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters and Industries - AICE. (2025). Coffee quality. Available in: https://www.aeki-aice.org/mutu-kopi/.
Aulia, A., Andy, A., & Desi, A. (2019). Factors determining the decision of farmers to improve quality of coffee production and changes of earned income in the Semende Darat Laut District, Indonesia. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Science, 10(94):64-69.
Aurelia, M., Syaukat, Y., & Falatehan, A. F. (2022). Competitiveness and potential for Indonesian coffee export market development. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal), 5(3):20116-20126.
Aziz, M., & Suryana, E. A. (2023). Policy comparison and implementation agricultural digitalization: opportunities and challenges. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Policy Studies, 10(3):179-198.
Bashiri, M. et. al. (2021). The dynamics of sustainability risks in the global coffee supply chain: a case of Indonesia–UK. Sustainability, 13:589.
Bekere, Y. B., & Megersa, G. R. (2021). Coffee certification participation and its impact on smallholder farmers’ income in Jimma Zone, Southwestern Ethiopia. Agricultural Social Economic Journal, 21(2):87-102.
Bilen, C. et al. (2022). Systematic review on the impacts of climate change on coffee agrosystems. Plants, 12(1):102.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2023). Indonesian coffee statistics 2023. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Republic of Indonesia. Available in: https://www.bps.go.id/en/publication/2024/11/29/d748d9bf594118fe112fc51e/indonesian-coffee-statistics-2023.html
BPS-Statistics Indonesia. (2025). Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2025. Jakarta: BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Republic of Indonesia. Available in: https://www.bps.go.id/en/publication/2025/02/28/8cfe1a589ad3693396d3db9f/statistical-yearbook-of-indonesia-2025.html
De Sousa, K. et al. (2019). The future of coffee and cocoa agroforestry in a warmer Mesoamerica. Scientific Reports, 9:8828.
Dharmaputra, O. S. et al. (2021). Assessment of the quality of arabica coffee beans from three processing methods and two types of packaging materials. Biotropia, 28(3):193-203.
Edwards, L., & Schoer, V. (2002). Measures of competitiveness: a dynamis approach to South Africa’s trade performance in the 1990s. South African Journal of Economic, 70(6):1008-1046.
Feryanto, F. et al. (2025). Can Indonesia achieve self-sufficiency of garlic as one of the national strategic commodities? A system dynamics approach. Cogent Food & Agriculture, 11(1).
Fitriani., Arifin, B., & Ismono, H. (2021). Indonesian coffee exports and its relation to global market integration. Journal of Socioeconomics and Development, 4(1):120-133.
Fufa, B. O., Etana, M. B., & Aga, M. C. (2019). Review on post harvest and green bean coffee processing in Ethiopia. Journal of Natural Sciences Research, 9(9):38-42.
Girma, B. (2020). Review on coffee quality markers. Academic Research Journal of Agricultural Science and Research, 8(4):378-389.
Gisisi, D. E., & Purwaningsih N. (2025). Qualitative analysis of revitalization and sustainable coffee cultivation strategies in East Halmahera: A case study of Permata Buli farmers’ cooperative, Geltoli Village, Maba District. Hydroponics: Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology in Plant Science, 2(1):257-268.
Haile, M., & Kang, W. H. (2019). The harvest and post-harvest management practices impact on coffee quality. In D. T. Castanheira. Coffee production and research. Available in: <https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/70151>
Hall, R. D.; Trevisan, F., & De Vos, R. C. H. (2022). Coffee berry and green bean chemistry – Opportunities for improving cup quality and crop circularity. Food Research International, 115:1-20.
Hanke, J. E., Wincharn, D. W., & Reitsch, A. Y. (2001). Business Forecasting, Practises. New Jersey (USA): Hall, Inc.
Hartrisari. (2007). Dynamic systems: System concepts and modeling for industry and environment. Bogor: SEAMEO-BIOTROP.
Ho, T. Q. et al. (2018). Eco-efficiency analysis of sustainability-certified coffee production in Vietnam. Journal of Cleaner Production, 183:251-260.
Ismono, H. et al. (2022). Impacts of coffee agroforestry and sustainability certification on farmers’ livelihood in Sumatra-Indonesia. Sustainability Science and Resources, 2(5):77-95.
Jaya, R., Yusriana, Y, & Ardiansyah, R. (2019). Sustainable production and processing system of coffee: state of the art. Journal of Agrotechnology, 13(2):171-179.
Junais, I. et al. (2024). Dynamics of changes in land use in the national coffee development area in Bantaeng Regency. BIO Web of Conferences, 96:1-9.
Kaido, B., Takashino, N., & Fukuyaki, K. (2021). Challenges of arabica coffee marketing: a case study in Kerinci Regency, Indonesia. Asian Journal of Agricultural and Rural Development, 11(1):53-62.
Kamal, M. A. et al. (2025). A Framework of hybrid system dynamics and agent based model with cooperative game theory for sustainable coffee supply chain. Journal of Applied Engineering and Technological Science, 6(2):922-939.
Kurniawan, D., Suharno., & Rachmina, D. (2023). Gayo Aceh coffee supply chain risk dynamics modeling in the covid 19 pandemic. Journal of Research Applied Agriculture, 23(3):455-467.
Leroy, T. et al. (2006). Genetics of coffee quality. Brazilian Journal of Plant Physiology, 18(1):229-242.
Mai, T., & Smith, C. (2015). Addressing the threats to tourism sustainability using systems thinking: A case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23(10):1504-1528.
Mera, A. M. R., Corrales, D. C., & Mesa, G. A. P. (2022). A systematic study of coffee quality throughout the production to consumer chain. Journal of Food Quality, 2022:8019251, 18 pages.
Mojo, D., Fischer, C., & Degefa, T. (2017). The determinants and economic impacts of membership in coffee farmer cooperatives: recent evidence from rural Ethiopia. Journal of Rural Studies, 50:84-94.
Muflikh, Y. N., Smith, C., & Aziz, A. A. (2021). A systematic review of the contribution of system dynamics to value chain analysis in agricultural development. Agricultural Systems, 189:103044.
Muhie, S. H. (2022). Strategies to improve the quantity and quality of export coffee in Ethiopia, a look at multiple opportunities. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 10:100372.
Neilson, J., Wright, J., & Aklimawati, L. (2018). Geographical indications and value capture in the Indonesia coffee sector. Journal of Rural Studies, 59:35-48.
Nugroho, A. (2014). The impact of food safety standard on Indonesia’s coffee exports. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 20:425-433.
Ozcelik, S. E., & Erlat, G. (2013). Turkey’s comparative advantages and dynamic market positioning in the EU market. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 15(2):42-70.
Paryanto, E. (2025). Indonesian coffee demand: determining factors and their implications for the coffee industry. Indonesian Journal of Economy, Business, Entrepreneuship and Finance, 5(1):145-155.
Pereira, S. P. et al. (2022). Impact assessment of the coffee social network (Rede Social do café). Coffee Science, 17:e172006.
Poncet, V. et al. (2024). Which diversification trajectories make coffee farming more sustainable? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 68:101432.
Pramastiwi, F. E. et al. (2010). Sustainability analysis of coffee farming in protected forestof west lampung based on enviromental economic value. Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal, 26(1):57-69.
Pratita, D. G., Budiarto, R. (2021). Comparative advantage and export performance of Indonesia and Vietnam coffee to the US market during 2001-2019. Agriekonomika, 10(2):137-144.
Purnomo, B. H. et al. (2024). System dynamic model of green supply chain management robusta coffee Argopuro in Indonesia: A case study. Coffee Science, 19:e192211.
Purnomo, B. H. et al. (2025). A system dynamic model of production control in Indonesia’s Robusta coffee downstream agroindustry (A case study). Coffee Science, 20:e202300.
Purwawangsa, H., Irfany, M. I., & Haq, D. A. (2024). Indonesian coffee exports’ competitiveness and determinants. Journal of Management and Agribusiness, 21(1):59-71.
Rahardjo, B. et. al. (2020). Analysis and strategy for improving Indonesian coffee competitiveness in the international market. BISMA (Business and Management), 12(2):154-167.
Ramos, J. H. et al. (2021). The effects of using socio-scientific issues and technology in problem-based learning: A systematic review. Education Science, 11(10):640.
Rich, K. M., Rich, M., & Dizyee, K. (2018). Participatory systems approaches for urban and peri-urban agriculture planning: The role of system dynamics and spatial group model building. Agricultural Systems, 160:110-123.
Rosiana, N. et al. (2017). The level of comparative advantage of world main coffee producers. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2):227-246.
Rosiana, N., & Feryanto. (2022). Farmer sales decisions and the sustainability of the coffee supply chain in Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1107:012083.
Rosiana, N. et al. (2024). Coffee Agro-industry conceptual model using system dynamics in Lampung Province, Indonesia. Industria: Journal of Technology and Management of Agroindustry, 13(1):1-13.
Sarirahayu, K., & Aprianingsih, A. (2018). Strategy to improving smallholder coffee farmers productivity. The Asian Journal of Technology Management, 11(1):1-9.
Savitri, A. A. et al. (2022). Defect analysis and development strategy for Robusta coffee of Tanahwulan Village, Indonesia. Journal La Lifesci, 3(1):14-25.
Simorangkir, N. C., & Rosiana, N. (2022). Analysis of robusta coffee marketing efficiency. Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness, 10(1):113-125.
Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston: McGraw-Hill.
Sudirman, H., Nurmalina, R., & Suprehatin. (2021). The impact of sustainability standard on coffee farm income: the case of the Starbucks CAFE practices program in Enrekang Regency. Agro Economics Journal, 39(2):81-103.
Sudjarmoko, B. (2013). Prospects of Indonesian coffee industrialization development. SIRINOV, 1(3):99-110.
Suganda, D. A., Dina., & Setyawati, I. E. (2024). The impact of coffee seed assistance on increasing farmers income n West Java. Journal of Public Service Management, 8(1):188-203.
Supriadi, H., & Pranowo, D. (2015). Prospects of agroforestry development based on coffee in Indonesia. Perspective, 14(2):135-150.
Suryana, A. T. et al. (2023). Geographic scope of the global value chain for Indonesian coffee. Coffee Science, 18:e182169.
Suryana, A. T. et al. (2024). Global competitiveness of coffee products: a comparative study of Indonesia and Vietnam. Coffee Science, 19:e192237.
Tesfa, M. (2018). Effect of drying methods on raw quality of selected cultivars of Arabica Coffee (Coffea Arabica L.) grown in South West, Ethiopia. International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), 8(11):1412-1420.
Tramontana, F., & Gardini, L. (2021). Revisiting Samuelson’s models, linear and nonlinear, stability conditions and oscillating dynamics. Journal of Economic Structures, 10(9):1-15.
Vellema, W. et al. (2015). The effect of specialty coffee certification on household livelihood strategies and specialisation. Food Policy, 57:13-25.
Wibowo, Y., & Handayani, R. Y. (2022). Quality control of robusta coffee beans using new seven quality control tools (Case Study at PTPN XII, Jember Regency). Indonesian Journal of Science and Technology Research, 1(1):1-15.
Zambolim, L. (2021). Management of soil borne fungi on coffee. International Journal of Research in Agronomy, 4(1):47-58.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Coffee Science - ISSN 1984-3909The copyright of the articles published in this journal belongs to the authors, with the journal holding the first publication rights. As the articles are published in this journal under open access, they may be freely used, with proper attribution, for educational and non-commercial purposes
